Following a capital raising of £20m in April 2020, Ilika has £12.4m of cash at the 31 October.
The company expects to report a loss in H1 of £1.0m (H1 2019 also a £1.0m loss). The statement said the current year was “broadly inline” with revenue of £1.3m for H1 to 31 October (v H1 2019 £1.5m) hindered by a 3-month shutdown of their manufacturing facilities between March and June 2020. In the RNS on 29 th Dec the company reiterated guidance set out in the announcements dated 11 and 24 November 2020. The company has two main products i) Stereax miniature solid state batteries ii) Goliath solid state batteries for use in Electric Vehicles (EVs). This solid state battery technology company put out a statement on the 29 th Dec saying that they were aware of the sudden share price spike to 270p (up from below £1 on 21 st December) but nothing had changed that they were aware of. I wish readers a prosperous New Year and hope 2021 delivers a few “inverse turkeys”. I’ve written about them because I find their story engaging. This week, I look at two ‘wait and hope’ stocks: Ilika and DDDD which are up 105% and 37% in the last 10 trading days. Edmond Dantes, falsely imprisoned for years in the Chateau d’If before discovering the treasure on Monte Cristo, embodies that thought. The flipside is to try to benefit from the occasional Inverse Turkey: years of disappointment, followed by an unexpected blockbuster hit. We should protect ourselves from the first type, what Taleb calls the Turkey Problem: many positive validations, followed by one big blow up. Ģ020 will be remembered for the ‘Black Swan’ pandemic, an infrequent event with serious consequences. He agreed and replied that he would re-read the book. Source: The Consequence of Fat Tails, Nassim N Taleb. I emailed Taleb to suggest that Edmond Dantes, is an anti-fragile character and The Count of Monte Cristo portrays ideas which Taleb expounds with mathematical functions, notwithstanding the occasional cartoon. But it occurred to me that the same themes had also been explored in great literature. Taleb has updated ideas from philosophers like Hume, Popper and Russell and applied them to financial markets. But simple arithmetic reveals at that rate it will take 3.5 years to vaccinate the 25m inhabitants of the UK the Government plans to offer a vaccine to. For instance, the UK vaccinated 137,897 people in the first week of the rollout**, which sounds a large number. Instead basic numeracy and thinking for yourself are better skills for investors. But I felt that the CFA was more like memorising a doctrinal catechism than true education. At the time I was troubled by the assumptions about applying Gaussian distributions to financial data, however the refrain from our tutor was “Do you want to pass the exam or not?” I did. I’m currently reading NN Taleb’s latest book, where he argues (belligerently) that focusing on asymmetric payoffs is far more important than forecasting events.* Much of the maths contradicts what I had to memorise in order to pass the CFA exams.
This time of year it is traditional for pundits to make forecasts about the year ahead. So much for Efficient Markets! No forecasts There were some odd movements in share prices on AIM in the last 10 trading days of the year, with Powerhouse Energy, EQTEC, AFC Energy and Ilika all more than doubling. The FTSE 100 finished the year at 6460, down 14% from 7585 this time last year. “ Until the day when God shall deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is summed up in these two words… wait and hope.” – The Count of Monte Cristo
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